In this episode of the Texas Land Guys podcast, Tom and Tim Dosch get real about the conversations they’re having right now with their biggest sellers in 2026. The market isn’t falling apart, but it’s not on fire either, and that shift changes everything. A lot of sellers are still anchored to 2021 and 2022 pricing, waiting for the big rebound that keeps getting pushed further out. Tom and Tim explain why hoping appreciation shows up “any day now” isn’t a strategy. It’s a bet.
Speaking from both sides of the table, through their brokerage at DMRE and as principals buying and selling land through Ascent, they share what changes when it’s your own capital and investor money on the line. Certainty beats ego. In today’s capital-constrained environment, the highest offer is often not the best offer. A slightly lower number from a real, well-capitalized buyer can be far more valuable than a big headline price that never actually closes.
They also unpack the emotional traps sellers fall into, why land is inherently illiquid and takes longer to transact than most people expect, and why AI tools simply cannot accurately price or underwrite a development site. This episode is not about being negative. It’s about being disciplined. If you own land in Texas and are thinking about selling in 2026, this is the straight talk you need before making a decision.
Key Takeaways
- 2026 is largely a buyer’s market. Sellers must work harder to position sites correctly.
- Land is inherently illiquid, and transactions take longer than most owners expect.
- The emotional traps sellers fall into
- The growing gap between real buyers and “tire kickers.”
- Land values are flat in most markets. Rapid appreciation should not be assumed.
- Certainty of closing is more important than the highest headline price.
- The capital markets are tight. Even strong developers are struggling to get deals capitalized.
- Real buyers require flexibility on timing and entitlements.
- Waiting for land to double in value is rarely a sound strategy.
- The risk of waiting for appreciation versus reinvesting today
- Experience as both broker and principal improves decision-making.
- Why AI tools like ChatGPT and Claude can’t accurately price land
- Rockefeller’s wisdom still applies. Failure is tuition. Use debt strategically.
- If you’re selling in 2026, start now. Land transactions take time.
In This Episode:
- [00:00] Introduction
- [00:56] Rapid market changes in early 2026 and the influence of AI
- [03:02] Rockefeller’s lessons on failure and risk
- [06:11] How Rockefeller used leverage and controlled the map
- [07:59] Roosevelt, monopolies, and modern parallels
- [10:38] Advising landowners in a buyer’s market
- [14:05] Emotional sellers and unrealistic expectations
- [15:02] AI valuations are off: why land pricing and feasibility can’t be automated yet
- [18:37] No “guaranteed appreciation”: cycles, flat land, and why waiting can backfire
- [22:34] The value of selling and reinvesting versus waiting
- [24:55] Picking the right buyer in a capital-constrained market
- [28:09] Taking 10% less for a sure thing
- [31:25] 25 years in the business: Tim reflects
- [34:24] How being a principal changed Tom’s advising framework
- [38:28] Wrap-up: final advice for Texas landowners in 2026
Resources and Links
Podcast
Tom Dosch
- https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dosch-37263b3b/
- https://dmre.com/
- https://ascentinv.com/
- https://100xharvest.org/
Tim Dosch
