In this episode of the Texas Land Guys podcast, Tom and Tim Dosch break down what they’re hearing after the NMHC conference in Las Vegas and tackle the question that matters most right now: what deals is capital actually chasing for 2026?
There is real money raised. Billion-dollar funds are sitting on the sidelines and debt is available. But equity is cautious. After last year’s false start with expected rate cuts and deals that later fell apart, capital partners are underwriting conservatively. Soft rents, heavy concessions in DFW, and legacy underperforming projects are driving a flight to quality.
Construction costs are easing, in some cases by $10 to $15 million per deal, which helps. But the market has split. True main-and-main, high-barrier sites are getting strong interest. Fringe and commodity locations are seeing thin demand and pricing that can feel like investor-level discounts.
They also dig into Texas market dynamics. Even though certain pockets of Austin can look hard to justify today, long-term conviction remains strong. That is where Elon Musk has been building his ecosystem in Central Texas, not DFW, and he is not done investing. Other major tech companies continue clustering there, reinforcing that long-term belief.
San Antonio is the sleeper. It rarely leads national capital conversations, yet it is a massive city with less development and a large population. Institutional capital may overlook it, but private capital could find real opportunity there.
If you own land in Texas and want to understand how capital will view your deal, connect with the Texas Land Guys team at DMRE for a strategic assessment.
Key Takeaways
- Post-conference optimism has faded. Capital is available but extremely selective.
- Two land markets have emerged. Core, well-located sites attract competition. Commodity sites see limited demand.
- Concessions and weak rent growth continue to pressure Texas metros.
- Debt is accessible, but equity is constrained. Banks are lending. Equity partners are sitting out.
- Construction costs are finally easing. Developers are seeing real relief that improves feasibility.
- Investor pricing and developer pricing can differ sharply, sometimes by 50 percent or more.
- Houston is hyper-local. Micro-location, crime trends, and street-level details drive value.
- Dallas and Austin draw institutional capital. San Antonio and Houston require stronger local conviction.
- Private capital can move contrarian. Groups like Ascent can act where institutions hesitate.
- If you plan to sell in 2026, stay realistic. Pricing to yesterday’s peak will stall your deal.
In This Episode:
- [00:00] Introduction to the Texas Land Guys podcast
- [00:47] Checking in on new year goals
- [01:34] Strength training with dumbbells and kettlebells
- [04:20] 2026 goals: relationships, conflict, and repair
- [11:31] NMHC Vegas recap and 2026 signals
- [13:04] Why the 2025 multifamily rebound stalled
- [15:44] Cautious capital, concessions, and easing costs
- [19:57] Core sites versus commodity locations
- [24:59] Dallas and Houston investor outlook
- [26:58] Debt-heavy landowners and fewer flips
- [28:05] 2021 to 2022 peak pricing reset
- [29:27] Carry costs and unrealistic sellers
- [31:59] Suburban sites versus high-rise infill
- [33:19] Institutional capital versus contrarian investors
- [36:50] Houston micro-location and zoning risks
- [38:59] Texas outlook: DFW, Austin, San Antonio
- [42:24] 2026 forecast and key variables
- [46:27] Two land markets: illiquid vs trophy
- [48:42] Houston outlook: single-family and rents
- [52:43] Wrap-up and final thanks
Resources and Links
Podcast
Tom Dosch
- https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dosch-37263b3b/
- https://dmre.com/
- https://ascentinv.com/
- https://100xharvest.org/
Tim Dosch
