In this episode of the Texas Land Guys podcast, the guys kick off the new year by reflecting on the biggest storylines that shaped 2025 and sharing their predictions for 2026. This is Part 1 of a two-part conversation where Tim, Tom, and Tripp look back on just how fast the year flew by, blending personal milestones, including Tripp’s wedding and honeymoon in Italy, with an honest breakdown of a Texas land market that proved far more challenging than many expected.

The conversation dives into the key market storylines from 2025, including early optimism that faded as interest rates stayed higher for longer and uncertainty around tariffs created another false start for developers. As they look ahead, the group offers early predictions for 2026, discussing why the coming year may be more about adjustment and clarity than a full market rebound. Construction costs coming down remain a bright spot, but underwriting deals is still difficult with open questions around rents, cap rates, and financing.

A major focus is the growing pressure on the consumer and how that trend could shape 2026. Inflation, rising debt, and concerns about job security, especially as AI accelerates, are influencing multifamily rents, retail leasing, and overall demand. The team also compares how these trends are playing out differently across Texas markets, with Austin’s urban core showing strength while suburban areas in Austin, Dallas, and Houston continue to face softer rents and slower recovery.

They wrap up Part 1 by unpacking note sales, extending and pretending loans, and explaining why many expect 2026 to bring a necessary market reset as long-held positions finally start to trade. This conversation sets the stage for what comes next, so stay tuned for Part 2, where the guys continue breaking down the trends, risks, and opportunities shaping the year ahead.