In this episode of Texas Land Guys, hosts Tom and Tim Dosch take listeners behind the scenes of a unique moment in the Texas land market, where developers are both flooding in and quietly pulling out.
Despite economic uncertainty, Texas continues to attract capital, especially in high-demand metros like Dallas and Houston. The brothers unpack why some developers thrive—think strategic focus, capital strength, and boots-on-the-ground leadership—while others stumble under slow approvals, mismatched product types, and a lack of local insight.
Drawing on decades of deal-making experience, they share stories from the field, including the rise and exit of major out-of-state players like Watermark Residential, and why some sellers who bought during the land rush of 2021-2022 are now weighing hard decisions. Is it better to hold, build, or sell? And how much does reputation matter in a saturated market?
Whether you’re a new developer eyeing Texas or a landowner considering your next move, this episode delivers a sharp perspective on what it really takes to win—or lose—in one of the hottest and most competitive markets in the country.
Key Takeaways:
- Texas still draws new developers, but strong local competition means not everyone will succeed.
- The most successful out-of-town groups have real capital, clear strategies, and leaders who can execute.
- Many fail when they try to copy high-end urban projects instead of focusing on proven suburban models.
- Speed, local knowledge, and decisive action often matter more than size or name recognition.
- A trusted reputation is critical; dropped or delayed deals hurt future opportunities.
- More developers are now choosing to sell sites they bought at peak prices rather than build.
- Sellers should weigh offers carefully, balancing price and certainty, especially when working with new market entrants.
In This Episode:
- [00:00] Introduction
- [02:39] Market overview: Uncertainty and developer movements.
- [03:52] Developer trends in Texas
- [07:25] Challenges for out-of-state developers
- [08:23] Success stories: Watermark Residential
- [11:58] Key factors for developer success
- [18:59] Case studies: DR Horton and Hines
- [23:51] Key traits of successful developers
- [24:32] Challenges faced by new developers
- [26:01] Impact of COVID-19 on development
- [27:54] Market shifts and developer strategies
- [31:10] Advice for developers holding land: Sell now or wait?
- [37:20] Evaluating offers and buyer credibility
- [43:19] Final thoughts: Texas’s enduring appeal for developers.
Resources and Links:
Tom Dosch
